Will renewable energy benefit from R&D investments?

In a presentation, Rice University’s Baker Institute scholars have looked at patenting activity over the past few decades, government funding in R&D, and potential impacts on renewable energy.  Their conclusion is surprising: Lower government funding in renewable energy reflects R&D’s declining productivity (based on patents) rather than lack of support.

While more details are necessary for a full evaluation, we are skeptical of their preliminary conclusion for several reasons including:

1. Patents are not the best indicator of R&D productivity (as the authors also acknowledge)
2. Patenting frequency has fallen significantly over the years due to prosecution times and costs
3. Government funding decisions are typically not sophisticated enough to reflect patenting activity

Thoughts?