A portfolio of renewables can supply India’s demand for electricity

The big energy challenge of the future will be supplying enough low-carbon power to meet the emerging economies’ growing demands.  Although renewable capacity continues to grow, as this blog has noted in the past, notwithstanding depressed financing, waning popular interest, disappearing subsidies, and slower technological progress, there is growing concern that renewables cannot be an important part of the supply solution.  A couple of recent papers have debunked this myth at least for India.

In a simple but rigorous and illuminating analysis, Professor S. P. Sukhatme shows that India’s annual demand for electricity in 2070 — when the country’s population is projected to be 1.7 billion — can be met to a large extent by a portfolio of renewable energy technologies, as shown in the figure below.  Further, this is a conservative estimate since contributions from a number of other renewables, e.g., geothermal, offshore wind, tidal, etc., have not been estimated.  Finally, the role of technology and innovation in improving both yield and economics have not been factored.  Even so, the traditional challenges with renewables, in particular intermittency, need to be overcome to ensure reliably supply.

Simple and innovative cleantech

Time magazine recently profiled BigBelly Solar and their simple but innovative solar-powered trash bins that collect and compact trash simultaneously.  The product allows for a wide range of energy efficiency improvements and has been adopted by several cities.  It’s a great example of how cleantech does not necessarily need capital-intensive investments.

Advancing the next generation of geothermal energy technologies

Geothermal energy doesn’t quite have the glamor of wind, solar, or biomass and thus receives little media or popular interest. Even so, the resource has a number of advantages, including the reliability of base load power, low operating costs, and virtually no greenhouse gas emissions. More importantly, geothermal energy is immensely promising if new technologies can be developed, demonstrated, and deployed widely. For example, drilling to depths beyond 3,000 meters — the limit of conventional hydrothermal technology which accounts for all of the ~11 gigawatts (GW) of geothermal capacity globally — and creating hot, “engineered” reservoirs could lead to as much as 100 GW of capacity over the next few decades, according to an MIT study released several years ago.

ADI Analytics brings extensive technical, market, and economic expertise in geothermal energy through its work for the U.S. Department of Energy. Among other accomplishments, our work so far has explored the cost structure of EGS, evaluated the impact of new technology, and benchmarked innovation and policy needs through sophisticated patent analytics. Further, we have identified and analyzed cost impacts of key risks, which, however, can be best understood through pilot or demonstration projects.

A number of start-ups and companies have been piloting and demonstrating core elements of EGS technology in the past few years. For example, Potter Drilling has recently completed a series of field tests of its spallation drilling technology. Ormat Technologies, AltaRock Energy, and Calpine are all piloting different reservoir stimulation techniques. Finally, companies such as GeoTek Energy, GE, Baker Hughes, and Schlumberger are developing tools and equipment to improve asset performance, operations at high-temperatures, and heat transfer and power plant efficiencies. At a recent meeting organized by the U.S. Department of Energy, these and several others provided updates highlighting how new energy technology development is difficult, slow, and often seemingly incremental and yet promising given how much progress has been made.

No energy is expensive than no energy

Homi Bhabha, the architect of India’s nuclear industry, reportedly once declared that no form of energy was more expensive than having no energy.  Consumers in the developing world without (or at the margins of) access to electricity can empathize with that sentiment.  Renewable power technologies are becoming cheaper but several developing world consumers are “ignoring” economics in their quest for energy.  More in this piece by the New York Times, as part of an interesting series called “Beyond Fossil Fuels.”

Geothermal energy in India

Thermax, a leading energy and environmental service firm in India, is partnering with Reykjavik Geothermal to develop power plants in India.  A 3 MW pilot project in Ladakh has been planned.  This deal is in alignment with similar deals Thermal has executed on in the recent past, seeking to strengthen its position as a supplier of clean energy projects in India.

Geothermal’s resurgence

The Wall Street Journal published today a good review of geothermal energy, which, “spurred by new technology and government funds, is enjoying a resurgence.”

If China is the “green giant,” how far behind can India be?

If China is the “green giant,” how far behind can India be?  A recent story documents how companies are trying to develop technologies, plants, and businesses that convert rice husk into power, recycle electronic waste, commission green data centers, consolidate wind and solar power, and mass produce electric cars.

Unlike China where its government is carefully orchestrating the new green revolution, India’s cleantech story is being fueled by entrepreneurs and venture capital.  Although India’s government is increasingly supporting the cleantech industry with policy, regulatory, investment, and tax incentives, its deeply democratic institutions ensure that it will be a slow albeit sure story.

Renewables M&A gets down to earth

KPMG has published an interesting survey of mergers and acquisitions in the renewable energy industry.  Major conclusions include:

1. Deal volume has, of course, fallen from nearly $26 billion in 2007 to a little over $18 billion in 2008 …
2. … With the billion-dollar transactions of 2008 being replaced by smaller-sized deals in the $300-500 million range and …
3. … Focused on currently operating assets in contrast to acquiring promising but undeveloped capacity
4. Investors are also using the depressed valuations to focus, consolidate, and grow positions
5. Government regulations and support drive renewable investments and, in recognition, nearly 16% of worldwide stimulus funds totaling almost $3 trillion have been allocated to “green” energy

Will renewable energy benefit from R&D investments?

In a presentation, Rice University’s Baker Institute scholars have looked at patenting activity over the past few decades, government funding in R&D, and potential impacts on renewable energy.  Their conclusion is surprising: Lower government funding in renewable energy reflects R&D’s declining productivity (based on patents) rather than lack of support.

While more details are necessary for a full evaluation, we are skeptical of their preliminary conclusion for several reasons including:

1. Patents are not the best indicator of R&D productivity (as the authors also acknowledge)
2. Patenting frequency has fallen significantly over the years due to prosecution times and costs
3. Government funding decisions are typically not sophisticated enough to reflect patenting activity

Thoughts?

Friedman on solar energy: Invented in U.S., sold abroad

Tom Friedman visited Applied Materials recently and has written a piece in the New York Times hypothesizing why all of its solar panel factories are abroad.  His conclusion:

… their governments have put in place the three prerequisites for growing a renewable energy industry: 1) any business or homeowner can generate solar energy; 2) if they decide to do so, the power utility has to connect them to the grid; and 3) the utility has to buy the power for a predictable period at a price that is a no-brainer good deal for the family or business putting the solar panels on their rooftop.